French Parliamentary Election: Analysis of the Current Political Landscape

The French parliamentary election is heating up as the first round of voting has concluded. The right-wing nationalist party, Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is in the lead, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP/UG) and the centrist camp Ensemble, led by President Macron.

There is growing speculation about potential coalitions and alliances as the conservative Les Républicains (LR) and the far-right party Reconquête (R!) show openness to cooperation. If the RN secures a governing majority, it could lead to a 'cohabitation' in France for the first time in over two decades.

The election also has significant economic implications, with both the RN and NFP proposing to withdraw Macron's pension reform, which could burden France's public finances. Investors are concerned about the anti-European positions of these parties.

The far-right RN is facing challenges in reaching an absolute majority due to the cordon sanitaire and campaign errors. Media, particularly the news channel CNews, have been playing a crucial role in the electoral success of the RN, with influential media moguls exerting pressure on journalists to shape news coverage.

The election campaign has not been without controversy, as over 50 politicians and campaigners have been assaulted, leading to heightened tensions. As the run-off votes approach, the government has deployed a significant number of police officers to ensure security.

Jordan Bardella, the party leader of RN, has gained attention on TikTok, expressing his Eurosceptic and anti-immigration views. A joint protest song against the RN by 20 rappers has received criticism for containing conspiracy theories.

The attacks on politicians during the campaign reflect the high tensions in the country, with left-wing and liberal parties aiming to prevent an absolute majority for the right-wing populist RN in the second round of elections.