The Impact of Economic Policies on the Economy: Luck or Skill?

Policymakers, including former US President Donald Trump, often claim credit for economic successes, but how much influence do they really have? Economic statistics should be lagged by two years to accurately assess policy effects.

Under Trump, GDP growth was average, interest rates were lower, and tax cuts did not spur growth as promised. However, debt and stock market gains were significant.

President Joe Biden's record shows higher growth, inflation, and tax receipts. The question remains: are these outcomes a result of luck or skill?

The reality is that economic policy measures require time, stability, and a bit of luck to succeed. Voters are more interested in their own finances than the overall state of the economy, making it challenging for policymakers to claim credit or blame for economic outcomes.