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Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%
Economy
Finance
Goldman expects Fed to cut rates by 25 bps in September, but 50 bps cut possible if August jobs report disappoints.
2024-08-19 09:00:10
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Goldman Sachs Lowers US Recession Odds: Fed Expected to Cut Rates
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Goldman Sachs reduces the likelihood of a US recession to 20% from 25%, anticipating a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed in September. However, a 50 bps cut might be possible if the August jobs report disappoints.
Positive retail and job data influenced the decision. Despite JPMorgan's unchanged 45% recession probability, Goldman's adjustment signals confidence.
The UK's energy price cap may rise by 9%, while Fed officials discuss potential interest rate cuts. Analysts suggest a Bitcoin surge amid economic shifts, and uncertainties loom with global tensions affecting markets.
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The Guardian
Fed’s Daly says its time to consider US interest rates cuts; Great Britain’s energy price cap tipped to rise 9% – business live
Economy
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Daly pushes for Fed rate cuts; UK energy cap up 9% on global tensions; Goldman cuts recession odds citing retail, jobs data; Fed's Waller to speak.
Cointelegraph.com News
Goldman Sachs lowers US recession risk to 20% — What it means for Bitcoin
Economy
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Goldman Sachs cuts US recession risk to 20%; Federal Reserve may cut rates in September; July's retail sales beat estimates; US unemployment claims fell to one-month low; IG Markets analyst says probability cut is minor tweak; 10x Research head says Bitcoin could surge initially but then correct lower; JPMorgan's recession probability unchanged at 45%, citing political uncertainties; Bitcoin $500K prediction, spot Ether ETF 'staking issue'.
Reuters
Goldman cuts U.S. recession probability to 20% on positive indicators
Economy
Finance
Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of the U.S. falling into a recession within the next year to 20%, down from 25%, based on the latest data on weekly U.S. jobless claims and retail sales. Earlier this month, Goldman had raised the probability to 15% after the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a three-year high in July. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on August 17 that the probability was lowered from 25% to 20% primarily because the data released since August 2 did not show signs..
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