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Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%
Economy
Finance
Goldman expects Fed to cut rates by 25 bps in September, but 50 bps cut possible if August jobs report disappoints.
2024-08-19 23:55:08
Business
Economy
Finance
Goldman Sachs Optimistic as Odds of US Recession Lowered
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Goldman Sachs projects a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in September, with a potential 50 bps cut should the August jobs report underwhelm. The investment bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, expressed confidence, attributing the reduced recession probability to improved economic indicators.
Consumer concerns were deemed exaggerated, with positive signs in retail sales and jobless claims. Despite contrasting views within the Fed, optimism prevails amidst the US economy's resilience.
The call for rate cuts gains momentum, as other market experts endorse the necessity of timely actions to mitigate financial risks. The shift in sentiment is underlined by rising consumer confidence and a rebound in the stock market, although caution remains regarding potential labor market challenges.
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The Guardian
Fed’s Daly says its time to consider US interest rates cuts; Great Britain’s energy price cap tipped to rise 9% – business live
Economy
Finance
Environment
Daly pushes for Fed rate cuts; UK energy cap up 9% on global tensions; Goldman cuts recession odds citing retail, jobs data; Fed's Waller to speak.
forbes
Will There Be A Recession? Goldman Sachs Lowers Odds As Consumer Health Worries ‘Greatly Exaggerated’
Goldman lowered recession odds from 25% to 20% after Aug. 2 data showed no signs of recession, including improved retail sales and jobless claims. Consumer health concerns are "greatly exaggerated" per Goldman, citing rising sentiment among S&P 500 executives with less than 5% mentioning "recession" on Q2 calls, a far cry from over 25% at the turn of 2022 and 2023. The July jobs report triggered the Fed's Sahm rule recession indicator, which Goldman had previously raised from 15% to 25%. Consu..
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