As the US election approaches, the economic policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are under scrutiny. Both candidates aim to strengthen domestic industry and bring back manufacturing jobs, indicating a shift towards more protectionist trade policies. This stance is unlikely to lead to any significant liberalization in US trade, affecting global economic dynamics, particularly with partners like Germany.
Trump's campaign promises include significant tariff hikes on foreign imports, which could instigate global trade disruptions and retaliatory tariffs. Such measures could severely impact economies like Germany, which thrive on open markets. Moreover, Trump's tariffs, if implemented, might burden US consumers, as past increases have shown that costs were passed down to them rather than foreign producers.
Harris, while also focused on protecting the US economy, is less likely to impose extreme tariffs. Her approach aligns more with multilateralism and upholding a rules-based world order, suggesting a less aggressive trade stance than Trump.
On taxation, Trump plans to reverse Biden's tax hikes and extend his 2017 tax cuts, further reducing corporate taxes for US-based manufacturers. In contrast, Harris is expected to focus on tax relief for low-income families to boost consumption, though this strategy might not benefit German exporters significantly.
Overall, the election's outcome could have profound implications on global trade and economic policies, with Trump's approach potentially leading to increased inflation and financial strain, while Harris's policies might offer a more stable international economic environment.
