The 2024 US presidential election presents two starkly different economic scenarios under Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Both candidates emphasize revitalizing domestic industries and jobs, but their approaches to trade and global relations differ significantly. Under Trump, an increase in tariffs is anticipated, potentially leading to trade wars and significant global economic impacts. Experts predict these tariffs could reduce US GDP by up to 4% and impose costs of up to 180 billion euros on German economic growth.
Trump's policies aim to return investments and jobs to the US, prioritizing 'America First' over globalization. His approach includes extending tax cuts and imposing hefty tariffs, which could harm EU exports to the US by up to one-third, particularly affecting Germany. These measures might trigger a recession in the Eurozone, highlighting the potential for a transatlantic trade conflict.
In contrast, Harris's presidency is expected to maintain a more stable economic relationship with Europe. While her focus on boosting US competitiveness through investments and export controls may have marginal impacts on countries like Germany, it does not pose the same threat of economic disruption as Trump's policies.
For India, both candidates promise tighter immigration policies, affecting Indian nationals. However, Harris might pressure India to distance itself from Russia, while Trump may adopt a more lenient stance on such alliances. Both candidates are expected to maintain tech cooperation and strategic trade dialogues, preserving key international partnerships.
Ultimately, the 2024 election outcome will significantly influence global economic dynamics, with each candidate charting a distinct course for US international economic relations.
