The German economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, growing by a mere 0.1%. This slight increase in GDP was primarily supported by consumer spending, with private consumption rising by 0.3% and government spending by 0.4%. However, investments fell, particularly in equipment and construction, indicating a continued struggle in these sectors.
The international trade balance also painted a concerning picture, with exports declining by 1.9% while imports rose slightly. Notably, exports to key markets like the USA and China fell significantly, reflecting broader economic challenges and geopolitical tensions. The overall international comparison shows Germany lagging, with the EU averaging a 0.3% GDP growth, and countries like Spain and France doing better.
Economic experts express concern over Germany's stagnation, pointing out the minimal growth in consumer spending and weak investment levels. The slight GDP increase in the third quarter is not seen as a turning point, with predictions of further economic contraction in 2024. The potential for a "winter recession" looms large, exacerbated by structural issues and political uncertainties.
The outlook remains grim, with calls for the incoming government to implement strategic economic reforms. The need for a shift in economic policy is urgent, especially given the challenges in key industries such as chemicals and automotive, which face crises and potential job cuts. As external demand wanes, particularly from major partners like the USA and China, Germany's economic resilience is being tested. The focus now turns to policy measures that could bolster growth and steer the country away from prolonged stagnation.
