Iceland is set to hold early parliamentary elections following the collapse of its ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson. The tripartite alliance, comprising the conservative Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement, and the Progressive Party, disbanded due to disagreements over migration, energy, and foreign policy. The political turmoil has led to 268,000 Icelanders being called to vote, with recent polls indicating a decline in support for the former government parties.
The Social Democrats are leading in the polls, with a potential need for a coalition government involving at least three parties. This election has rekindled discussions on Iceland's EU membership, a topic dormant since the country withdrew its application in 2015. The debate is fueled by high interest rates and geopolitical shifts, such as Russia's actions in Ukraine, which have increased interest in European cooperation.
Pro-EU parties, including the Social Democrats and the Liberal Reform Party, are gaining traction, collectively holding 45% support. There is speculation about a future referendum on EU membership, although it remains a secondary issue for many Icelanders who already benefit from the European Economic Area and Schengen agreements. Economic and geopolitical factors continue to shape Iceland's stance towards the EU, with fisheries management being a significant sticking point.
The upcoming elections will not only decide the composition of Iceland's government but also influence the ongoing EU debate. As the country navigates these turbulent political waters, the possibility of a more EU-friendly government looms, potentially reshaping Iceland's future relationship with Europe.
