The Syrian conflict has once again escalated, with Islamist rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launching a decisive offensive against President Bashar al-Assad's regime. This offensive is bolstered by Turkey's support, though Ankara remains cautious about direct involvement. The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has allowed the rebels to capitalize on a strategic opening.
Assad's power, previously reinforced by allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, is under threat as these backers face their own challenges. Russia's focus is diverted by the conflict in Ukraine, Iran is weakened by Israeli strikes, and Hezbollah's influence has diminished. Despite these setbacks, Russia remains committed to sustaining Assad's regime through military interventions similar to those seen during the 2016 Battle of Aleppo.
The recent rebel advances have prompted a flurry of diplomatic activity. Turkey, Iran, and Russia are revisiting the Astana peace process, seeking a resolution amid the escalating violence. Iran has sent reinforcements to support Assad, while Turkey-backed forces have made significant territorial gains in the north against Kurdish militias.
The situation remains precarious. Although HTS and its allies have seized Aleppo and other strategic areas, the conflict's complexity is compounded by numerous factions and international interests. The potential for further instability looms large, as the Syrian people endure the consequences of ongoing power struggles and humanitarian crises. Meanwhile, calls for dialogue between Assad and the opposition persist, highlighting the desperate need for a political resolution to end years of bloodshed.
