The recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marks a significant shift in Syria's political landscape. HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, has captured Damascus, putting an end to Assad's long-standing rule. This power shift has been met with various international reactions. The United States, actively engaged in Syria, conducted airstrikes on over 75 Islamic State (IS) targets to prevent a resurgence of the group. President Biden hailed Assad's fall as a "fundamental act of justice," signaling a commitment to stabilizing eastern Syria.
The change in power dynamics has also influenced regional relations. Israel faces a new strategic situation as tensions rise on the Golan Heights, where troops have been deployed in response to potential threats. Iran, a staunch supporter of Assad, fears the implications for its resistance efforts against Israel. Meanwhile, Turkey has emerged as a pivotal player, supporting Syrian National Army (SNA) advancements around Manbij and backing pro-Turkish militias in northern Syria.
Globally, there are concerns about HTS's governance and its potential links to terrorism. The group, once affiliated with al-Qaida, is attempting to present a more moderate image. However, experts debate the stability HTS can bring, drawing parallels to the Taliban's governance.
In the aftermath, international responses vary. European nations are cautious, maintaining sanctions against Assad's allies. The humanitarian aspect is also pressing with the potential for refugee movements. As the global community watches these developments, the future stability of Syria hangs in the balance, with significant implications for regional and international security.
