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Assad's Flight and HTS's Ascendancy
2024-12-17 13:29:09
Politics
Conflicts
Terrorism

Assad's Flight and HTS's Ascendancy

Image courtesy of : AFP (-)

Bashar al-Assad, the former Syrian ruler, fled to Moscow amid a coup led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied militias. In his first public statement since the fall, Assad claimed he stayed in Damascus until the last possible moment, coordinating with Russian allies.

Assad described the new regime as 'terrorists'. While HTS has distanced itself from extremist elements like Al Qaeda, it has implemented a structured government in Idlib, fostering improved living conditions and governance.

HTS leader Ahmed Hussein al-Shara emphasized the need for laws and institutions. Despite accusations of earlier human rights abuses by Assad, HTS promises a peaceful transition and protection for minorities, marking a significant shift in Syria's political landscape.

The group's pragmatic approach, focusing on governance and societal development, contrasts sharply with previous regimes, offering a glimpse of hope for stability in war-torn Syria.

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EU's Cautious Engagement with Syria's New Leadership

Following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, the European Union (EU) faces the challenge of engaging with Syria's new leadership without formally recognizing the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is still regarded as a terrorist organization. The EU is tentatively opening communication channels with the HTS-led administration to explore possibilities for stabilizing the country and ensuring the protection of minority rights, including Christians and Kurds. Germany plays a pivotal role in this diplomatic approach, with Michael Ohnmacht appointed as an EU representative to Damascus and Tobias Lindner serving as Special Coordinator for Syria. Amidst these developments, German diplomats are actively engaging with HTS representatives, focusing on a transitional government that includes all societal groups and protects minority rights. Despite HTS leader Muhammad al-Dscholani's attempts to present a more statesmanlike image, significant concerns about the group's connection to Al-Qaeda persist. The EU's approach includes conditions such as the closure of Russian military bases in Syria and adherence to human rights, particularly concerning minorities and women, before any sanctions are lifted. Meanwhile, HTS promises to disband its militant factions, integrating them into the state army, and pledges to support a Syrian-led political process. As the EU navigates this complex situation, it remains cautious about Russia's influence in the region and is keen to avoid scenarios similar to Libya or Afghanistan. While the EU maintains its sanctions on Syria, there is ongoing dialogue about potential easing if positive steps are observed from the new Syrian leadership. This diplomatic balancing act underscores the EU's strategic interest in ensuring stability and human rights in Syria while preventing further geopolitical entanglements.

Syria's New Chapter: Diplomatic Shifts and Challenges

Syria is undergoing a significant transition following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad by the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The European Union has taken a cautious yet strategic step by engaging with Syria's new provisional government, despite HTS's controversial links to al-Qaida. The EU aims to assess the new leadership's commitment to stability and inclusivity, while emphasizing the need for minority and women's rights. The situation in Syria is further complicated by international dynamics. Israel has intensified military actions, targeting Syrian missile warehouses and expanding settlements in the occupied Golan Heights. These actions have drawn international condemnation, highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria's future. In parallel, former President Assad has sought refuge in Russia, claiming his departure was unplanned and forced by circumstances beyond his control. His narrative attempts to maintain his image amid the upheaval, as he insists on never abandoning his people. The involvement of Turkey, supporting the new leadership, has also played a pivotal role. The reopening of the Turkish embassy in Damascus signals a shift in international relations, with Turkey aiming to influence Syria's political landscape. Meanwhile, Western nations, including the US and the UK, are cautiously engaging with the new authorities to ensure a peaceful and stable transition. Humanitarian efforts are being prioritized, with the EU organizing a fundraising conference and the UK pledging aid. As Syria seeks international recognition and stability, the global community remains watchful of the new government's trajectory, balancing diplomatic engagement with the imperative of maintaining regional stability and preventing a resurgence of extremism.

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