The Overstepping of the 1.5-Degree Climate Threshold

The target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, set by the Paris climate agreement, appears to be slipping away. Scientists predict that by 2024, global temperatures will surpass this crucial threshold for the first time.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change originally anticipated reaching this mark around 2030. However, evidence suggests accelerated warming, potentially driven by climate change itself. Researchers from institutions like the Met Office and the Alfred Wegener Institute highlight concerning trends, including rising carbon emissions and unprecedented solar radiation absorption.

The German Weather Service reported 2024 as Germany's warmest year since records began. Experts warn of more frequent and intense weather extremes as a result of these changes.

Despite ongoing discussions on alternative calculation methods, the consensus remains that further warming is inevitable, jeopardizing not only the 1.5-degree goal but potentially the 2-degree target as well.