What Factors Could Influence Ursula von der Leyen's No-Confidence Vote?

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to face a no-confidence vote in the European Parliament. The motion was initiated by Gheorghe Piperea, a right-wing Romanian MEP, citing concerns over her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and undisclosed text exchanges with Pfizer’s CEO.

Additionally, allegations of EU interference in Romania's presidential election and a defense financing program have been mentioned. Despite these claims, the European Conservatives and Reformists group distanced itself from the motion.

Although the vote is scheduled for next week in Strasbourg, the likelihood of it passing is low, as a two-thirds majority is required. If successful, the entire Commission would be compelled to resign.

However, leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni have expressed skepticism, making von der Leyen's ouster improbable. This event echoes past no-confidence motions, such as those faced by Jean-Claude Juncker and Jacques Santer.