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Economic Risks of a Trump Victory for Germany
2024-10-19 23:55:09
Economy
Politics
Business

Economic Risks of a Trump Victory for Germany

Experts warn that a potential Trump election win could significantly impact Germany's economy. The Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research projects a 1% decrease in Germany's GDP, translating to a loss of approximately 4.2 billion euros.

This anticipated decline stems from Trump's protectionist trade policies, which include imposing high tariffs on imports, particularly from China. To mitigate these risks, researchers advocate for a more expansionary fiscal policy, increased infrastructure investments, and a reform of the debt brake.

These measures aim to enhance fiscal flexibility and shield the German economy from the adverse effects of global trade tensions.

Related news on that topic:

The Economic Impact of Trump's Tariff Plans

The potential re-election of Donald Trump poses significant economic implications due to his aggressive tariff strategies. Trump's previous tenure was marked by intense trade conflicts, predominantly with China. His proposed tariffs are set to escalate, with potential increases of 60% on Chinese goods and 10-20% on other imports. Such measures could weaken Germany's economic performance by over 1% within two years, according to the Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research (IMK). The repercussions extend beyond Germany, with the Eurozone expected to experience similar economic strain. However, the most substantial impact would be felt by the U.S. itself. The IMK forecasts a potential reduction in the U.S. GDP by up to 5% by late 2026, should these tariffs be implemented alongside strong retaliatory actions from China. The intended goal of bolstering domestic production may not offset the broader negative effects on economic growth. In contrast, a presidency under Kamala Harris might mitigate these impacts. Although not a staunch advocate of free trade, Harris's approach would likely involve less severe protectionist measures than Trump's. Consequently, the adverse effects on the German economy would be relatively marginal. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has also voiced concerns, arguing that Trump's tariff plans could spur inflation and harm American families and businesses. Her warnings highlight the potential domestic fallout, countering Trump's claims that tariffs would reduce trade deficits and boost employment. Investors remain divided, with some betting on Trump's policies to spur inflation and affect currency markets, while others caution against the long-term economic vitality risks posed by higher tariffs and reduced immigration.

Potential Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies on Germany and Global ... Global Trade

Donald Trump's proposed trade policies could significantly impact Germany and the global economy. Economists warn that his protectionist stance, featuring high tariffs, could reduce Germany's GDP by one percent, potentially costing around 4.2 billion euros. Trump's plan includes imposing 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports and 10 to 20 percent on other goods, provoking a global trade war. These measures could disrupt trade agreements and escalate economic tensions worldwide. Tax cuts and high tariffs are central to Trump's economic strategy, aiming to rejuvenate American industries but risking increased inflation and recession. The resultant economic shock could trigger retaliatory tariffs from other nations, further destabilizing international trade. Economists express grave concerns about these radical policies, which prioritize short-term industrial gains over global economic stability, potentially leading to widespread economic repercussions.

The press radar on this topic:

Frankfurter Rundschau
19. Oktober 2024 um 17:06

Does Germany face a billion-dollar loss if Trump wins the election?

Politics
Economy
Finance
According to experts from the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research in Dortmund/Washington, Trump's election victory could reduce Germany's GDP by 1% and cost 4.2 billion euros. His protectionist trade policy with high tariffs on Chinese and other imports is seen as the cause. The researchers recommend that the federal government pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy, infrastructure investments, and a reform of the debt brake in order to expand fiscal space.
tz
19. Oktober 2024 um 17:06

Does Germany face a billion-dollar loss with a Trump election victory?

Politics
Economy
Economists at the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) warn that a victory for Donald Trump could have serious consequences. Accordingly, Germany's GDP could decline by one percent due to Trump's high tariffs, which would correspond to a loss of around 4.2 billion euros. Trump's protectionist policy could lead to tariffs of 60 percent on Chinese products and 10 to 20 percent on other imports. The researchers recommend that the federal government pursue a more expansio..
CW

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