2024-10-17 13:29:09
Economy
Politics
USA

The Economic Impact of Trump's Tariff Plans

The potential re-election of Donald Trump poses significant economic implications due to his aggressive tariff strategies. Trump's previous tenure was marked by intense trade conflicts, predominantly with China. His proposed tariffs are set to escalate, with potential increases of 60% on Chinese goods and 10-20% on other imports. Such measures could weaken Germany's economic performance by over 1% within two years, according to the Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research (IMK).

The repercussions extend beyond Germany, with the Eurozone expected to experience similar economic strain. However, the most substantial impact would be felt by the U.S. itself. The IMK forecasts a potential reduction in the U.S. GDP by up to 5% by late 2026, should these tariffs be implemented alongside strong retaliatory actions from China. The intended goal of bolstering domestic production may not offset the broader negative effects on economic growth.

In contrast, a presidency under Kamala Harris might mitigate these impacts. Although not a staunch advocate of free trade, Harris's approach would likely involve less severe protectionist measures than Trump's. Consequently, the adverse effects on the German economy would be relatively marginal.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has also voiced concerns, arguing that Trump's tariff plans could spur inflation and harm American families and businesses. Her warnings highlight the potential domestic fallout, countering Trump's claims that tariffs would reduce trade deficits and boost employment. Investors remain divided, with some betting on Trump's policies to spur inflation and affect currency markets, while others caution against the long-term economic vitality risks posed by higher tariffs and reduced immigration.

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17. Oktober 2024 um 08:00

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Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, is passionate about tariffs. He referred to the word "tariff" as his favorite word and commented on it in an interview with Bloomberg. A study predicts that Trump's tariff policy could reduce the German gross domestic product by 1%.
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17. Oktober 2024 um 19:17

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As Treasury Secretary, Yellen plans to warn that Trump's proposed sweeping tariffs, including 10-20% on most foreign goods, 60%+ on China, and up to 50% across-the-board, would fuel inflation and harm US businesses. Yellen will criticize Trump's past tariff actions and re-election plans to further increase tariffs.
Diplomacy - South China Morning Post
17. Oktober 2024 um 11:56

US Treasury chief suggests Donald Trump’s tariff plan will hurt families and businesses

Politics
Economy
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that higher import tariffs pushed by former president Donald Trump, including 25% tariffs on US$300 billion worth of mainland imports, would drive up domestic inflation, hurt American families and businesses, and set back global security efforts. Trump has claimed the tariffs have helped cut America's trade deficit with China while boosting US job growth, and has pledged to use tariffs to lower trade deficits, but Yellen says "untargeted tariffs" are "d..
New York Times - Business
17. Oktober 2024 um 12:32

Is the Trump Trade Back?

Politics
Finance
Economy
Investors believe Trump's victory would benefit certain sectors and assets, as the dollar approaches a two-and-a-half month high with currency traders pricing in a Trump win, betting his policies of lower taxes and less regulation would drive up inflation and lower bond prices. However, Trump wants a weak greenback, and Holger Schmieding of Berenberg bank argues higher tariffs and less immigration under Trump would hurt U.S. economic vitality in the long run.
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