The upcoming US presidential election has captured the attention of Europe, with many nations closely monitoring its potential outcomes and impacts. Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is favored in Western Europe due to her predictable policies and emphasis on trans-Atlantic cooperation. In contrast, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, finds more support in Eastern European countries, particularly those with autocratic tendencies.
European Union diplomats are preparing for either election outcome by attempting to 'Trump-proof' policies, especially relating to security and defense. There is a growing expectation that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own defense, irrespective of the US election results. The EU is also cautious about the US's shift towards a 'homeland economy,' which threatens to complicate trade relations.
In Germany, a significant portion of the population anticipates negative consequences from a Trump victory, fearing diminished NATO commitments and escalating global crises. In contrast, a Harris presidency is viewed as beneficial for German-American relations, the economy, and climate policy.
The NATO alliance remains wary of another Trump term, recalling the unpredictability and unilateral actions seen during his first presidency. Concerns persist that Trump could weaken NATO by withdrawing support or reducing US military presence in Europe. NATO aims to safeguard itself against such scenarios, though experts argue that completely 'Trump-proofing' the alliance is challenging.
Despite the uncertainties, a Harris win could offer NATO a window to address imbalances in defense responsibilities. This includes enhancing Europe's military capabilities and reducing dependency on the US. Politically and strategically, Europe faces the challenge of adapting to potential shifts in US foreign policy, regardless of who wins the presidency.
