Syria faces a new wave of turmoil as Islamist rebels launch a surprise offensive, capturing large parts of Aleppo, including its airport. This unexpected development places significant pressure on President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Assad, traditionally supported by Russia, Iran, and Shiite militias, now finds these allies preoccupied with other crises. Iran deals with regional tensions involving Israel, while Russia's involvement in Ukraine limits its capacity in Syria.
Turkey, under President Erdogan, seeks to normalize relations with Assad but simultaneously supports anti-Assad militias to prevent a Kurdish state. This dual strategy complicates regional dynamics, with Erdogan emphasizing diplomacy and the Astana process as pathways to peace.
Amidst these shifting alliances, jihadi groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seize control, imposing stringent rules in rebel-held territories and limiting freedoms, especially for women. Their recent gains in Aleppo and advances towards Hama, a critical city on the route to Damascus, pose a strategic threat to Assad's regime.
The potential use of chemical weapons by Assad, as a desperate countermeasure, remains a grave concern. Meanwhile, misinformation spreads through manipulated images on social media, exacerbating the chaos.
Russia's appeals to Turkey to restore stability highlight the complex interplay of regional powers. Despite Assad's reliance on external support, the rebel offensive underscores his regime's vulnerabilities and the unpredictable nature of alliances in the Syrian conflict. As regional and international players navigate their interests, the situation remains fluid, with the risk of further escalation.
