In a dramatic shift, Islamist rebels have taken control of Aleppo, surprising the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad. This unexpected rebel offensive capitalized on the diminished focus of Assad's key allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, who are preoccupied with other regional conflicts. The takeover has sparked fears of a renewed cycle of violence, with concerns that Assad might resort to using chemical weapons again.
The group behind this advance, Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is a successor to the Al-Nusra Front, and despite efforts to appear as a moderate force, it is still composed of jihadists. This development carries significant implications for the local population, particularly in Aleppo's minority-majority areas, where governance under HTS is anticipated to be harsh.
Turkey's involvement is crucial, as it appears the offensive was conducted with at least its tacit approval. President Erdogan's interests might extend beyond immediate gains, hinting at a broader strategy to exert influence over northern Syria and counterbalance Kurdish autonomy.
Russia, despite its entanglement in Ukraine, has shown continued support for Assad through airstrikes. However, the Syrian regime's reliance on Russian and Iranian military support highlights its vulnerabilities. Iran's ongoing commitment, alongside potential reinforcements from Shiite militias, could bolster Assad's forces.
The international community, including the US and EU, has called for de-escalation, amid concerns that the intensified conflict could lead to further humanitarian crises. As the situation unfolds, the potential for negotiations involving Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Assad's regime remains a critical factor in determining Syria's future stability.
