The Ifo Institute in Munich forecasts an inflation rate of about 2.5% in the coming months, drawing from its survey of business price expectations. This projection highlights a mixed economic sentiment across different sectors. Consumer-oriented services, including hotels and travel agencies, are planning price hikes, reflecting a significant rise in their price expectations. In contrast, the gastronomy sector shows a decrease in its price indicator.
Retailers, particularly those dealing in toys, clothing, flowers, and stationery, also intend to raise prices. However, sectors like food and beverages, electronics, hardware stores, and car dealerships are experiencing reduced price pressure. Notably, the bicycle trade even anticipates lowering prices. Manufacturing sees a decline in price expectations, with energy-intensive industries planning price reductions. The construction sector is split, with a balanced number of companies planning to increase and decrease prices.
The broader economic context shows inflation remaining above 2%, driven by factors such as CO2 price increases and higher costs for transportation and food. Despite these pressures, the German Federal Statistical Office reported a December inflation rate of 2.6%, with an average of 2.2% expected for 2024. The Bundesbank predicts inflation may ease in subsequent months, yet economists anticipate it staying above the 2% mark in the near term.
Globally, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, aim to balance inflation control with economic growth objectives. The Fed is prepared to adjust its policies to meet its dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, while closely watching the economic landscape.
