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State of the Union: Challenges for Scholz and the German ...
2024-09-06 23:55:08
Politics
Europe

State of the Union: Challenges for Scholz and the German Chancellorship

Image courtesy of : AFP (MICHAELA STACHE)

The recent regional elections in Germany have seen the far-right AfD and BSW parties gain ground, posing a concern for Chancellor Scholz and his SPD party. Scholz's announcement of tougher immigration policies failed to halt the losses.

The fragmentation of German politics raises questions about Scholz's political survival, with both the SPD and CDU struggling to respond. Meanwhile, Hungary and the European Commission and Court of Justice are embroiled in a dispute over a €200 million fine.

Austria has announced deportations to Afghanistan and Syria, in cooperation with Germany. Mongolia has refused to arrest Putin, despite an ICC warrant for alleged Ukraine war crimes.

CDU leader Merz and CSU leader Söder are vying for the Union's chancellor candidacy, with Söder making a comeback in the discussion. These developments create challenges for Scholz and the future of the German Chancellorship.

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AfD leads SPD in Brandenburg state election

According to a recent survey, the far-right AfD party is ahead of the ruling SPD in the upcoming state election in Brandenburg. The survey shows the AfD at 27%, while the SPD is at 23%. The CDU is in third place with a slight decrease in support. The BSW and the Greens have also experienced a slight decrease in support. The survey indicates that the migration issue is the most important political topic for voters in Brandenburg. The AfD's success in Thuringia has influenced their strategy for the upcoming election. The BSW, which has been in talks with CDU-led governments, could also potentially play a role in the government if the other parties refuse to work with the AfD. The SPD is considering the possibility of being the opposition party if they do not come in first place. The potential for a BSW government participation is split among voters. The survey also highlights the importance of the Grundmandatsklausel, which allows parties to enter the state parliament based on the percentage of direct mandates won. Overall, the election outcome remains uncertain.

Citizens demand a different refugee policy

Citizens in Germany are expressing their dissatisfaction with the federal government's current asylum and refugee policy. According to recent surveys, 77% of the population wants a different approach. There is a majority in favor of permanent border controls and increased powers for security authorities. Voters from the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) feel safer than others, while the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) is considered more competent on migration than the potential traffic light coalition. The debate over government formation in Saxony and Thuringia could harm potential Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. A majority also supports the CDU's resolution against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, but not against the Left Party. There is growing resistance against the participation of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition. Possible Chancellor candidates from the Union include Merz, Markus Söder, and Michael Wüst. Poll results for the 2025 federal election show support for the CDU/CSU at 33%, the SPD at 15%, the Greens at 11%, the Free Democratic Party at 4%, the AfD at 17%, the BSW at 8%, and the Left Party at 3%. Meanwhile, studies show that a significant number of people with a migration background are considering emigrating or moving to another federal state due to the rise of the AfD. This trend raises concerns about the potential loss of knowledge, know-how, and economic capacity for Eastern Germany, as well as the difficulty of attracting skilled workers with such an image. The debate over migration policies continues, with CDU leader Merz calling for a decisive stance from Chancellor Scholz on border rejections. The Green Party leader Baerbock warns against panic mode in counter-terrorism efforts and calls for legal certainty, while the FDP leader Dürr calls for better cooperation with third countries and facilitated labor migration. The debate highlights the divide among the political parties in the coalition talks. The AfD's electoral success is prompting people with a migration background to consider emigrating or moving to another federal state. The party is perceived as anti-democratic and racist by a majority of the population, especially among those with Arab and former USSR backgrounds. However, opinions vary among different groups, and caution is urged against harmful right-wing narratives and the potential brain drain for Eastern Germany. CDU members are discussing expanding their incompatibility resolution to include further parties, including the BSW coalition. This move is driven by concerns about conflicting principles and the impact on the party's image. CDU leader Merz is also reportedly working on his own incompatibility resolution, targeting a specific individual: Markus Söder. Overall, the political landscape in Germany is facing challenges and uncertainties as the 2025 federal election approaches.

Read 27 more recent news on this topic

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